#51 Published Thursday July 07, 2005 at 10:45 am EDT

At 11:00 am EDT Hurricane Dennis has a sustained wind of 105 mph, a CAT 2 cyclone. It's at position 18.0 N 75.6 W with a minimum barometric pressure of 28.59". Most importantly and ominously for the South Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, the current heading is now NW or 315 degrees. This NW jog is in response to my forecast of a weaker Bermuda high pressure ridge over and east of Florida. It was easily seen too as the maximum barometric pressure here in Plant City on west central peninsula fell from a maximum of 30.14" on Tuesday to a maximum of 30.03" on Wednesday. With more forecast models jumping on the band wagon of an eastward track shift the NHC TPC has adjusted the official track to the east, with a landfall back to near Pensacola Sunday evening 07/10/05.

As I said above the new NW heading is ominous for the South Florida and the Florida Keys and the NHC TPC has now issued a hurricane watch for the Florida Keys and a tropical storm watch for the southern peninsula. On the current forecast track Key West would experience hurricane conditions on Saturday with gale force conditions, storm surge, heavy rainfall and tornadoes moving up the west coast to the Tampa Bay area.

Looking at the strength of Dennis, as already mentioned above he is a CAT 2 now and after skirting Jamaica to the north he should reach CAT 3 status before crossing western Cuba, though circulation interaction with Cuba could hold Dennis to a strong CAT 2 cyclone. After he emerges into the SE Gulf Of Mexico west of Key West he should reach CAT 3-4 strength enroute the NW Panhandle. However some weakening is possible as he approaches the coast.

Looking at the synoptic situation more closely, the Bermuda high pressure ridge over the eastern Gulf Of Mexico and Florida peninsula weakened and retreated eastward due to the passing of T.S. Cindy. The slower the mid level vestiges of Cindy move northeastward the slower the high pressure ridge rebuilds and shifts westward. We also have several mid level shortwave troughs over the SW and southern U.S. heading eastward, that "COULD" weaken and shift the high pressure ridge eastward allowing Dennis to track over or along the west coast of Florida or it could re-strengthen and shift back to the west pushing Dennis back westward for a landfall in AL or MS. It's all a matter of timing.

An experienced Meteorologist does not change his hurricane landfall prediction on every whim of the forecast models, My mantra once again is live by the model die by the model. So right now I see no reason to change my landfall forecast from yesterday, a window between Pensacola and Fort Walton Beach on early Monday morning as a CAT 3-4.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net

NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249

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