I remember how we would always sit here and wait during previous storms to see when/where the NHC would issue watches/warnings. I don't think they issue them unless they pretty darned confident they are warranted. Here's some of the reasons why: it brings up the level of the local EOC's, who then go into planning for evacuations, who then go in to the process of ACTUALLY evacuating. We then see (perhaps before the local EOC's) the state EOC go into action, usually followed by the Governer requesting help from the federal government. All of this takes a lot of time and money, and I seriously don't believe they (NHC) would put up watches/warnings just on a whim that the models *might* shift more to the right. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see more watches/warnings extended up and down the ENTIRE peninsula (hurricane on the west, tropical on the east) in the next day or so.
The information they are getting is now more conclusive because it's coming from Recon, so that is probably why we are seeing more of a consensus in the model outputs.