Palmetto -- the last "major" storm to affect Tallahassee was Kate in 1985, and that only brought 45mph winds to the airport...yet many lost power for a week.

A category 3 hurricane would be unprecedented, as nothing beyond a week hurricane has directly affected this area since before 1900. Storm surge maps for the area are rather sobering as well -- Apalachee Bay is the most susceptible area to storm surge in the Gulf of Mexico & perhaps the entire basin.

Re: water temperatures -- according to buoy observations, water temperatures are about 87 degrees offshore of Tampa Bay. The shallower waters in Tampa Bay itself and directly along the west coast might well be warmer -- closer to the 90 degrees reported -- but are not that high over the open waters.

FYI: recon pressure within the past 10 minutes down a full 6mb to 956mb. Cuba and Jamaica are going to take one strong beating from this storm.