it went over that little jut at cabo cruz an hour or two ago... inner core looks less symmetrical now. it ought to take half of tomorrow crossing central cuba at an oblique angle. the progs are still for the panhandle in the end.... the intensity track looks fair though i take note of the fact that hurricanes approaching the northern gulf coast usually weaken more than forecast. i was thinking okaloosa county fl this morning.. a little east over to walton/bay as of the evening. not going over any further, though. 100kt looks about right, give or take 10kt. 4PM Sunday the 10th, + or - 3 hrs.
gonna go see if i can find when the last july category 4 hurricane was. i'm sure it'll take a while.
the wave near the islands is staying active and low. it has a good chance to be something when it reaches the islands in 4-5 days.
catch y'all folks later.
HF 0519z08july