Looking at the radar presentation, I wouldn't be surprised if Dennis shoots for the Bay of Pigs, perhaps just north of the Island of Youth and cuts the western peninsula.

I keep thinking back to the models (and I know we've been talking about them a lot and how they change) that originally called for Dennis to go through western Cuba, and for awhile today it looked like a Cuban bisection was in the works (east to west). If the ridge built back up in time, it might be enough to depress Dennis' northward movement and keep him back on a WNW track that would shoot the gap I mentioned above and bring him over very little land whatsoever.

Oddly enough, the FSU MM5 back around the 12Z/0705 run took it in that general direction. Like I said, it'll be worth studying after the fact to see which models caught on to which legs of the true path for future analysis purpose.

I'm thinking, though, that we'll know about 65% certainty where Dennis is going by the 2pm advisory Friday. And I'm thinking (with nothing but a math degree to save my soul) that it's going to be a panhandle event of some sort...but I wish it would die off and fizzle, much as that won't happen.

Oh, and once again the local weather guys on TV were showing a map with supposed GOM water temps, and it was all colored in as being in the 89-91 degree range. I've been tempted to write them an email asking what their source is, since every darned buoy/ship out in the GOM is reporting nothing more than about 86 at the highest, and most around 84....