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Argh... it didn't post and ate the entire thing... Take 2... The more westerly motion at 5AM continues, with a change of 0.4N, 0.6W over the last three hours.... This has been the case, to some extent, all night.... Nine hours does not a wobble make....but, let's look over the last 12 hours, from 5PM-5AM, 1.7N, 2.5W... even the discussion agrees: MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS..BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE INITIAL MOTION. THEREAFTER...TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY TURN DENNIS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. Think about it... Not to personify the storm, but Dennis knows that if he crosses Cuba, he will weaken... Perhaps he's just not ready to do that right and and would prefer to skirt the coast a while longer.... It's just like with Ivan... when does it make the turn? So, let's stop talking about who is right and who is wrong and focus on what this storm is doing and where it's going! Thank you so very much!~danielw |