| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 08 2005 10:16 AM |
|
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited
|
Quote:
You bring up an important point re: eye replacement cycles. Right now, looking at the latest infrared loop, Dennis' eye is contracting and looking very symmetrical in comparison with what we saw with his brief brush with Cuba yesterday. I assume that we will see further strenghtening in the next advisory. When will the next eye replacement cycle occur and what does that mean for the intensity going into the GOM?
The replacement cycles usually occur every 6-12 hours...I think the next one might occur just north of Cuba. But ERC's are generally NOT forecastable. I agree that we could see more strengthening before this system reaches Cuba. For the crossing, I can already tell that Dennis isn't going to have to deal with much terrain for long. I think that Dennis will probably emerge from Cuba in a slightly disorganized state. However, tightening could occur as the storm moves further north.
IMO...and it's my opinion only...Dennis could possibly touch near category 5 status for a short period of time in the Gomex. This may not last for long though. As we already know, the 90 degree SST's don't extend all that far below the surface.