It is time to put away the models as they have told us everything we need to know....Dennis' motion and the models have been projecting an exit off Cuba at 81-82 now for at least a day and a half...nothing will change on that end of the picture.
The critical area remains the ridge and particularly the western and NW side...WV pix now being processed of this area arepredictive of the future impact the various synoptic features will have on that ridge. The southern part of the ridge has reasserted itself and is very vigorous.
As it stands now the NHC track is verified up to the panahndle, and suggestive of a more eastern land fall nearer Apalachecola...however that depends on the resiliance of the trough barrier..it is possible and I think part of the NHC's thinking that Dennis as a Cat 3 or 4 will be the dominant synoptic feature in the region and will push that trough barrier north and west.
The trough on its southern reaches is pushing east and there is new energy from the NW diving down into Texas but that seems to flatten toward the east as it approaches the GOM. Don't look for the trough to further weaken the ridge on the NW today.
Anyway this is what I am going to watch all day...and disregard the models from here on until finis...
Sorry panhandle...as we are used to here any more hunker down.
If more people would do this kind of observation at this stage of an approaching storm at least for contingency planning we may avoid the OOPS factor so significant in Charley last year...some people here did and clearly said even before Charley crossed western Cuba that the Port Charlotte area was where the currents seemed to be pointing..too much reliance on the models created false impressions.