Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 08 2005 03:32 PM
NWS MLB AFD

"SAT...POWERFUL HURRICANE DENNIS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EAST GULF. LATEST TRACK KEEPS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE AREA. HAVE CONSIDERED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AS SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE 25-30 MPH...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE ADVISORY FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER.

MAIN ISSUE HOWEVER MIGHT TURN OUT TO BE THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE WHICH WILL BE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THE BANDS SHOULD START IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY EARLY MORNING AND LIFT TO NORTHERN SECTIONS BY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES.

HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR 15 MPH AND IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A NEARLY STEADY SPEED. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS OF 3-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY NEAREST TO THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE...OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. OF COURSE COASTAL CONVERGENCE EFFECTS COULD LEAD TO AN INTENSE RAINBAND FURTHER EAST TOO. FLASH FLOOD AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 3 INCHES FOR ONE HOUR AND 4-5 INCHES FOR
6 HOURS. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH."



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