the wnw/nw wobbles aren't in any way predictable, but best guess is that the center moves back offshore around 9-10 tonight between matanzas and havana. radar imagery makes it seem like the inner core is doing fine... but it's been on coastal lowlands all afternoon. some hill country to cross this evening before it can re-emerge.. probably cat 2/3 area with a pressure up around 965 when it goes back offshore. that concentric eyewall thing looks like it has more or less completed, so i reckon the shot cuba had at wrecking the inner core is past.
the forecast path stays glued to the fl/al border area. for two days the official has been kept there while the models have leaned back and forth around it. only folks who can really call themselves out of the woods are on the florida peninsula, where nothing worse than rainbands will keep it unsettled.
one good note in all this is that dennis seems to be targetting the area of coolest ssts in the gulf--we may see it inch back up to category 4, but not very likely it will landfall as one. category 3 looks most likely right now.
wave in the east altantic near 30-35w is quite active. nhc isn't mentioning it in the two, but the way things look they won't be able to ignore it for long. i have a feeling this one will be something luis can get krunked over.
if i was inland near the confluence of the ohio and mississippi rivers, i'd get ready for some serious rains. it isn't wholly consistent, but there has been enough model support for stalling/looping/slow, erratic movement of dennis inland around july 13-15 to take heed. inland flooding has been the big killer from tropical systems in the u.s. for the last 30 years or so; dennis has the potential to be both a drought-ender and a major flood event in the midsouth.
HF 2324z08july