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Marco, the main problem with slowing is that it causes havoc with forecast tracks. The faster he gets to where he's going, the less the environment around him changes. If he's moving slower, you have to wait until some feature convinces him to move one way or the other and that gets dicey, ala Frances last year. Slower will let him strengthen more, but if he sits in the same spot for a while, he will cool the water down and eventually start to weaken. So, in the long run, he's probably a Cat 3 for most of his Gulf visit regardless. Slowdowns are bad for forecasting. |