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Discussion 18 mentions Pascagoula for the first time. I am hoping that tomorrow evening I am not seeing another track like Ivan. I remembered how they kept saying it was going to turn east and turn east and it didn't. Ivan didn't turn east until the very last couple hours, so Pascagoula dodged the bullet then. "The GFDL and GFS have shifted to the right of their previous forecasts...while the UKMET remains to the left of center of the guidance envelope. Consensus models remain clustered around a landfall between Pascagoula and ft. Walton Beach. The forecast track is shifted a little to the left of the previous track...to match the initial position and motion in the first 24 hr and to be a little closer to the consensus models from 24-48 hr." |