adogg, history or no, there is a ridge axis over florida that is orienting nnw-sse up towards the ohio valley, and a mid-upper trough over the western gulf. the hurricane should move between them. forecast models have been clustered from the panhandle over to the mouth of the mississippi for days, and all of that evidence is the best thing we have to go on. you really ought to tone down the central florida mongering... at least the south florida mongerging has ended.
as far as the probs going higher on the central gulf, margie.. that's because the hurricane is closer. those forecast probs are a function of where the official track is and how many days away the storm is... it's closer now, so higher confidence even though the forecast has only shifted back to the left a little. the forecast track hasn't deviated much for four days now.
HF 1535z09july