Quote:
as far as the probs going higher on the central gulf, margie.. that's because the hurricane is closer. those forecast probs are a function of where the official track is and how many days away the storm is... it's closer now, so higher confidence even though the forecast has only shifted back to the left a little. the forecast track hasn't deviated much for four days now.
HF 1535z09july
Thanks Hank. That makes me feel a little better...but even though the forecast hasn't deviated, the models have. But I'll take seasoned expertise over estimates from computer models (see, I'm in IT!).
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Re: models and probabilities