Interesting topic in the NHC 11:00 Advisory:

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND ESPECIALLY AT 12Z...ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...INDICATE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF JUST
SOUTH OF LOUISIANA IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN AND LARGER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS WERE INDICATING AT 00Z AND 06Z. THE NOGAPS MODEL DID NOT CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AT ALL...AND IT AND THE GFDN MODELS ARE THE
ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE DENNIS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THE 12Z MODELS SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
GIVEN THAT THE LOW IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND IS
NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

The funny think about that is that at 11:00am, Dr. Steve Lyons said that the trough and the ridge are causing a squeeze on Dennis...with the HP ridge building back in and the trough digging deeper, resulting in Dennis being the monkey in the middle. He did not believe that the environment further north in the Gulf were conducive to much more intensification because of this "squeeze play".
So, maybe the jogs to the north we are seeing is because the models didn't pick up on the strength of the trough (which is what I have said many times and got berated for! ) and it will trek a bit further east. That being said, I would definitely not expect any kind of dramatic turn to the right with Dennis. The only thing that will happen, perhaps, is to make the weather here a little worse than it's already forecasted to be.
Speaking of our weather: we had some squalls last night, mostly rain, but at about 9:00am, the winds had really picked up here and they woke me up!

We've had a lull the last couple of hours, but from looking at the radar, I expect that to change shortly.
So far, so good. I just pray for the people who will be taking the brunt of this hurricane that it will not reintensify too much. Also want you to know that our family has you in its thoughts and prayers.