cjzydeco
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 09 2005 02:26 PM
Re: Dennis' future movement

Quote:

My point, perhaps semantics, was NE GOM. would you label Mobile or Biloxi the NE GOM??




I see what you're saying, but the NHC doesn't really talk in semantics. If you look at the whole GOM, 90 degrees west longitude, which runs through Lake Ponchetrain, is about the midline (I am apporximating of course). If you agree with this, then everything to the right of the 90W (including Biloxi anf Mobile) is in the eastern half of the GOM. And since I think we are all still expecting a northern gulf landfall, I think forecaster Stewart was simply making a blanket statement, saying that landfall would be somewhere in the eastern half of the GOM on the northern shore. If Stewart thought that a big bend landfall was a becoming a possibility, Stewart would have said so and explained the reasoning. Stewart does a great job of explaining why the NHC kept the same track, despite model runs pulling more to the left. I enjoy reading Stewart's stuff. Arguably one of the best at NHC.



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