site is experiencing some problems. not sure what's up, but it appears to be cosmetic only. as long as we can all keep communicating, everything's o.k. if not peachy.
the latest public advisory says the winds are 145mph in the text body and then concludes that they're 140mph. minor inconsistency when you think about it... the winds are just really freakin' strong. the eye hitting just west of either mobile or pensacola are the worse case scenarios i can see here. not to take anything away from pascagoula or biloxi... but the cities on the large bays are at a higher risk for surge, and have more property that can be affected (think most people will get out of dodge).
lets just hope an eyewall replacement cycle spins dennis down before it comes ashore tomorrow. lili went from 4 down to 2 in about 12 hrs... it can happen. i don't see anything quite that dramatic happening here.. but still think it can drop to 3 before coming ashore. no way to be certain, but i think dennis is just about done strengthening... the waters it's over shouldn't support much more intensification. don't see the makings of an erc yet, unfortunately. there's still time.
HF 0818z10july