| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 10 2005 05:01 AM |
|
Re: Recon
|
Quote:
Thanks for the info. At this point, what are the chances that Dennis can arrive as a cat 5? I've heard about weakening in the north gulf of mexico, I've heard about storms not being able to reorganize and strenghen after a long land transverse--it seems that the forecasters are a bit "out to sea." Any insights as to intensity at landfall?
I wouldn't say they're 'out to sea', Hurricane intensity is one of the most difficult things to project, and really, they've warned people for a while that this storm was not going to be nice. But as far as intensity goes, The pressure has to start levelling off,
5am sat:972mb
11am sat: 967mb
5pm sat: 955mb
11pm sat: 941mb
5am sun: 932mb
40mb drop in 24 hours
I keep saying, 'it can't keep strengthening' but at this point, it's making it's own environment, the only thing that will slow it down in the next 12 hours are ERC and ssts. It's moving to fast to really upwell too much water, and it's still a very small storm. 145mph winds at the 4am cdt advisory...
take this for what it's worth and I'm gritting my teeth as I say this, peak at 150, landfall at 140, either way, it's going to be very unfun for anyone in the path.
-Mark