Hurricane Dennis Discussion Number 24

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 10, 2005

Data from the Air Force hurricane hunters indicate that the maximum
winds in Dennis have increased to near 125 kt. This is based on
maximum 700 mb flight level winds of 139 and 140 kt from a couple
of passes through the northeast eyewall. Dennis may undergo an
eyewall replacement cycle prior to landfall...which usually results
in some fluctuations in intensity. Water vapor imagery does not
suggest any environmental mid- to upper-level features that could
weaken the hurricane before landfall... however the waters over the
northeast Gulf coastal areas are of somewhat lower oceanic heat
content...which should limit significant additional strengthening.
Dennis is forecast to make landfall as a category four hurricane.
Track forecast reasoning is basically the same as before. The
hurricane is now moving north-northwetward in the steering flow
between a mid-level high to its east and a mid-level trough near
the northwest Gulf Coast. This general motion should continue
through landfall. The official forecast track is similar to the
previous one and is quite close to the dynamical model consensus
and to the Florida State University superensemble track.
Predicted storm surge heights have been adjusted upward due to the
increased intensity of the hurricane.
Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 10/0900z 27.8n 86.1w 125 kt
12hr VT 10/1800z 29.6n 87.4w 125 kt
24hr VT 11/0600z 32.0n 89.0w 65 kt...inland
36hr VT 11/1800z 34.5n 90.0w 35 kt...inland
48hr VT 12/0600z 36.5n 90.0w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 13/0600z 38.0n 88.5w 25 kt...inland
96hr VT 14/0600z 38.5n 86.5w 20 kt...remnant low
120hr VT 15/0600z 38.5n 84.5w 20 kt...remnant low

$$