i don't like the idea of having to go to lockdown; i don't think any of the admins do either. try not to bait anybody (or be baited) into useless bickering. if people get really out of hand us mod/admin types will respond appropriately.
out in the east atlantic... nhc holding off on upgrading t.d. 5. it's already trending weaker/more southerly than the initial progs. in the end all that does is shift the threat west and south. the larger islands are more likely targets as time goes by. they'll add lots of chaos to track/intensity. some of the models have been running it more w than anything else... my reckoning is that it stays west until deepening, then starts wnw/nw.. until the building ridge to the north smooths it's track on wnw. joe b has it keeping low, getting as far as the western gulf. i dunno.. maybe something in between.
i've noticed that the itcz disturbance to the se of t.d 5 is dragging on it some.. and if it were at a more appreciable latitude would be favored for development. not doing a thing unless it gets to the north.. may influence the t.d. 5 track in the short term. the 11am two even mentions it.
the wave coming off africa isn't a completely discrete entity.. involved with a sort of monsoon trough right now. there is still as much/more model support for this feature than t.d. 5/future emily. joe b has it acting up, going more to the north.
intuition is that we'll have systems five and six this week. the fun never stops.
HF 1653z11july