With regards to the current state of TD 5, it's rather similar to the initial call on Dennis -- which was quite well handled, actually. The mid-level circulation is currently much more impressive than the low-level feature, with is displaced from the center of the deep convection towards the eastern edge of the convective mass. There is broad cyclonic low-level turning, but not a well-defined center as of yet. Some interaction appears to be going on with the feature to its east-southeast, albeit minor at this time.

The current state of organization is going to keep things in check for the time being, though conditions are favorable for further (faster) development once the mid-level feature and surface feature are in better alignment with each other. There is some dry air ahead of the storm, but it appears to be waning with time. We'll have to play it by ear, but if the subtropical ridge builds back in to the north of the storm, it would tend to keep it more southerly; if not, then it'd end up as a fish spinner. Unfortunately, the former appears to be more likely at this time. The longer this storm stays weaker as well, the further south it'll traverse the ocean.

As an aside, at least the Caribbean is shut-off for the time being, the first time in a little while for that. It could just be temporary, though, as we saw around the time Bret got going. We'll have to see whether or not it means anything in case TD 5 heads that way.