nhc is sort of dragging its feet on classifying emily, but that's SOP for storms still out to sea that have ambiguity to them. if it were my call... based on convective organization and the fact that the center was tight when exposed a couple days ago, and has been more or less buried in convection for 36 hrs... i'd have upgraded it today. they'll probably have to issue watches as soon as they upgrade it from here on. to be u.s.-centric and wish our future trouble away on others, a track over hispaniola and cuba would be best for florida or the gulf in dealing with whatever the storm will have to throw at us. based on the shape of the ridge and expected intensity i wouldn't count on it gliding mostly west and ending up in mexico or c.a., but the only model support i've seen for that features an open wave.. not a likely development. most likely path is over or very near the greater antilles. a path near dennis in the caribbean would mean contention with upwelling and such. forecast track might shift a tad more left, but don't expect it to change much from here. storm will probably strengthen just below climatology until it gets to the caribbean.. probably very near or at hurricane strength when it gets to the lesser antilles on thursday. day 4 intensity probably low. day 5 intensity probably high (unless it somehow misses land).
further east that huge wave with a monsoon trough tailing away wsw has a broad circulation and scattered convection above the itcz. big waves like this usually take 2-4 days to get organized, so it probably won't be anything until late in the week... the early global runs that develop it quickly and take it on a higher trajectory are probably wrong.. correct for that sw and it looks like it could buzz the northern lesser antilles later in the weekend.. and be interacting with the weakness that digs in and splits behind emily. would-be franklin has a moderate chance to recurve or at least get hoisted into a snag in the ridge... if the weakness splits it will be charging in behind emily at a higher trajectory. there's also a disturbance unto itself along the itcz to the se of future emily.. but it's at like 6-7n latitude. don't think it'll work its way up to where it could do something.
HF 2344z11july