Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 12 2005 12:56 AM
Re: emily

Tend to agree with HF on this one. Though the overall organization of the storm isn't anything to write home about, the latest QuikSCAT pass over the storm about 5:30pm ET today suggests that the circulation has become a bit better defined (if a bit elongated east-west) with some non-rain flagged 40kt+ winds. Given the satellite-based Dvorak intensities and improved appearance on infrared satellite (the convective tops are probably over the center now, even if they aren't in nice bands or in a CDO feature), I think we'll see Emily at 11pm.

I also agree with the earlier post about what comes behind it...the wave closest to the storm is looking a bit ragged right now and is pretty far south, should take a few days if anything comes of it, while the wave just off of the coast is probably in a similar state to TD 5 a few days ago. One or the other may develop, but probably not both. If Emily gets going sooner rather than later, the wave closest to it stands little chance...the outflow from Emily will sap its strength and shear it apart.



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