According to Millenium Weathers, Gary Gray, the GGEM model takes it right through SoFl but some of the models, see the GFS, aren't initializing the storm system at all well. Its a really inexact science to predict where a developing, weak tropical depression, especially one with no clear cut center of circulation. All depends on how these models handle it when the center of circulation finally appears.

BTW, Mr. Gray forecasts it to pass over Hispanola and possibly take the more northerly path to South Florida. He's using a blend of the GFS/GFDL/GGEM models because the UKMET takes it way far west as an open wave and the others are to the left of his forecast.