Hmmm...interesting comment about July TC activity towards the rest of the season. Chris Landsea has run stats that show little significant correlation between July activity and the rest of the season; perhaps it is just an anecdotal reference to the researcher's personal beliefs, not sure.

As for the 8p TWD: if they weren't able to find a center, the storm would be dropped -- having a center is a prerequisite to being a classified system. I think you probably meant better-defined center, though, as it does appear to be becoming better defined. We'll know in the next little bit here as to whether or not the depression gets a name at 11p. The wave behind it looks a little better defined over the past few hours...I think there may be some cyclonic turning to the NE of the main region of convection, but as before, it'll take a while to get organized.