emily: i've been entertaining that emily will more than likely go over the larger islands... something like georges did (except for south of puerto rico). if it gets north of them the florida is in serious trouble.. but across the islands it will beat the living crap out of itself and end up in the gulf next week. it's going to get stronger than forecast after 36 hrs.. should be a significant hurricane when it gets to the d.r.
behind emily: low latitude and easterly shear are keeping this thing in check. there is enough longitude between it and emily (and it and the system behind it) that it could develop discretely, but unless it gets above, say, 9N, expect nothing more out of it. cross equatorial flow and the large dip in the easterlies are creating a huge gyre in the area that should naturally support it.. but it has to get to the north to do anything.
behind the system behind emily: this is the one bastardi and others are progging as franklin.. i'm on that boat. it's got more latitude and should have cool water problems to contend with, but a large-envelope wave like this should withstand such things and consolidate as it moves west.. later in the week this thing should be developing. models are doing it too fast, taking it too far north.. but due to its initial position it should do something to that effect. by the weekend it should be a named system moving wnw, north of the islands.
that's as far as i'll wager right now.
HF 0736z12july