11am Discussion:

FOR A STORM MOVING WESTWARD AT ALMOST 20 KT...THERE IS A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF WIND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTING UP TO 56 KT AT 850 MB IN THE ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 57 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AT LEAST 45 KT
AT THE SURFACE...AND THE FLIGHT CREW HAS VISUALLY ESTIMATED WINDS OF 55 KT. GIVEN THIS...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT SOUNDS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. INCIDENTALLY...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA
CONFIRM THE RAIN-FLAGGED BUT ESSENTIALLY CORRECT QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN THE 09Z PASS. EMILY CONTINUES ON A STUBBORN WESTWARD TRACK...270/17. THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FORECAST ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY BY THE TRACK MODELS HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET. CLEARLY THERE HAS BEEN MORE RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THAN EXPECTED. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BOUNDED BY THE GFDL AND UKMET ON THE NORTH...AND NOGAPS ON THE
SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE NOGAPS SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF EMILY IS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE NEAR THE CORE...AND I PRESUME THAT THE DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...UPPER WINDS ARE STILL
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. WHILE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IF EMILY DOES NOT GAIN SOME LATITUDE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IT COULD LOSE A SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND END UP CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN FORECAST.