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The midlevel ridge to the N of Emily is sliding east. Its now located near 52W compared to yesterdays 58-60W. Emily has already jumped just N of west and will begin moving wnw to almost nw at times. There is a strong mid and upper high in the gulf with a branch extending to the midatlantic. A trough extends in the atlantic down to the bahamas to eastern cuba where a weak midlevel low is. This combined with Emily being sw of the small ridge will push her wnw-nw. Computer models are split almost from the start. Nogaps ( genereally the best model in the tropics) continues Emily more w-wnw and takes her towards belieze and the Yucitan......GFS and GFDL takes her near Jamaica and near Cancun,Mex or just north of there. Canadian and UkMet are towards the SE gulf on a track very simular to Dennis. Current thinking is that the ridge over the Gulf will stay in place for awhile longer and the ridge over the midatlantic will be strong but not maybe as strong as forecasted earlier. Also this ridge might be slightly further off in the atlantic. So there should be a weakness that continues near the bahamas and south florida. Dennis remenents will continue over the Ohio valley and get stretched out between the ridges to its south and east and a trough coming into the plains and great lakes by early this weekend.
I feel there is more toss up to what Emily might do then 24 hrs ago when I felt she will stay south and follow what the current Nogaps was saying...and it still could. The weak trough near Cuba and the bahamas stretching in the atlantic might not pick her up enough to bring her towards Cuba. Also though I think the ridge off the mid-atlantic might be further out by the weekend. The Gulf ridge I feel will win out over the midatlantic one causeing more weakness then forcasted over the bahamas. This should drive Emily more towards Cuba and very simular to Dennis. Now not sure yet on landfall in the U.S. The ridge will be strong in the Gulf and could then steer Emily more west towards the Cancun area and Texas-Mexico or it could find even more weakness and head N. Right now its hard to tell.
Only way for this system to head up to Florida or the Bahamas would be for a stronger trough off the bahamas and florida and the ridge in the gulf to slide alittle more W ( which isnt out of the question).
Overall expect a wnw-nw path to near Jamaica and Cuba for now then more w feeling the ridge in the gulf.........

scottsvb

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