Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 03:15 AM
Re: Winds In Emily

ralph, no one is wishcasting this storm anywhere NEAR the United States. No one wants to see this storm become any stronger than it is or affect any landmass. When making a forecast, one must consider all available guidance and weigh it accordingly based upon past performance, initialization, and the forecaster's own intuition. The UKMET model is but one of those tools, one that both the forecasters here and at the NHC use in making their forecasts.

I don't recall anyone here saying that it is going to be a storm to hit Florida; you have people asking if it might affect Florida, but no one saying that it will. Anytime a model changes, especially if it brings the storm closer to the US, people are going to start asking questions for their own peace of mind and because they are curious as to why that might happen. That does not equate to people wish/forecasting it to hit Florida -- or anywhere else in the US at the time being, for that matter.

Please send me a private message if you have any questions or concerns, and I'll do my best to alleviate them.



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