Re: Hebert's box #2, RedingtonBeachGuy wrote:

"Looks like Emily is heading right for Paul Herbert's #2 box.. so much for that theory with Emily it seems.."

I'm not sure what "theory" he is referring to, but I am guessing it is the interpretation of Hebert's theory to mean that a hurricane that goes through the box will, or is likely to, hit S. Florida. That is not what the theory says.

If I remember correctly, Hebert looked at strong storms that had hit S. Florida and found that a large percentage of them (but not all of them) had passed through one of two boxes, the one near P.R. and the one in the Western Caribbean. However, the theory did NOT say that a storm that passes through those boxes will hit S. Florida; instead, it merely said that storms that hit S. Florida have often gone through one of those two boxes. There is a big difference. But yes, if that were the end of the story, it would generally mean that when a storm passes through one of those two boxes, South Floridians should keep a close eye on the storm.

However, there are differences with every storm, and in the case of Emily (or, for example, a rare storm - which perhaps has not occurred yet - which passes through the P.R. box moving from SW to NE), S. Fla. obvioulsly does not have to keep quite as close an eye on the storm. (Although, of course, we should always be watching anything in the tropics.)

And in fact, I'm pretty sure that the second Hebert box was based on pre-1950 data, and that the actual theory has not really held up for post-1950 storms. (And again, even if it had held up, I think it says a lot less than what RedingtonBeachGuy implied.)

Additionally, I think that Hebert's second box applied only to late-season storms, for which Emily certainly would not qualify. And climatologically that makes sense: storms that form in that area in October often move in the general direction of Florida, similar to Irene in 1999. (Although I'm not even sure if Irene passed through that box; it may have, but I'm just not sure.)

Every year there seems to be a lot of confusion about Hebert's boxes. I haven't read about them in detail in years, but I know Hebert said something a lot different than he's often interpreted to have said.

Best of luck to anyone in Emily's path.

-Brad