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Allison, the models are limited to what they can initialize the storm at by their resolution. The MM5 has a horizontal resolution of about 36km, while the NOGAPS and most global models are at 110km (the UKMET model is closer to 80-85km). Since storms are so small -- especially Emily -- they aren't gonig to have enough data in the inner core than will a mesoscale model like the MM5. What impact that might have on track forecasts remains to be seen, however. |