Well would you look at that? The Jamaican land mass didn't affect her that much, the core got smaller, and son of a gun if a band of colder cloud tops wrapping quickly around the western side isn't filling in the circular shape nicely. I thought something was happening a couple of hours ago - looking at the water vapor it seemed like the outflow hit a bit of a wall - at around 82W on a N-S line but I guess that wasn't anything, and I'm just not that good at reading the maps yet. Guess that warm water she's been going over is really helping things along.

I had always thought she'd go to a CAT 5 today, but I had envisioned the big strengthening happening later this aft and into this evng.

Not looking so good for Cozumel and Cancun, but the roller coaster ride of intensity could mean Emily won't be this powerful at landfall. Looks like the minimum will be a strong CAT 3 though.