Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Jul 16 2005 09:07 PM
Re: Advisory 24a

Quote:

Surprised the winds did not increase, but after all pressure is still above 920. Guess it is better to be on the conservative side. Will be interested to see the recon data!

EDIT - OK now, hoping someone will explain this...max flt lvl winds went up from 141kt to 149kt which would seem to indicate Cat 5, although deg thermal gradient went down from 11 to 10. Pressure dropped 8mb in 6 hours. Why not a Cat 5?



Answering my own post...a little sick, I guess.

I realized maybe there is a lot of analysis for NHC to do with the recon data, and why jump the gun before doing a complete analysis. 11pm advisory is plenty of time to upgrade to Cat 5, and maybe even wait until morning recon if it is borderline.

EDIT - I was just thinking also - if deepening continues at this same rate, which is certainly possible, it could be down to 920mb by next recon.


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