HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 (edited~danielw)

AIR FORCE RECON REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 134 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0018Z. NORMALLY THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 120 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY AND IS NOW UP TO 955 MB.
THEREFORE IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INTENSITY IS JUST A LITTLE LOWER AT THIS TIME...115 KT. THIS IS STILL CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...AND EMILY REMAINS A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM CANCUN SHOWS THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE FLUCTUATING...BUT WITH NO DEFINITIVE
INDICATIONS OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL IN A FEW HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...EARLY ON MONDAY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/180253.shtml