Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Jul 18 2005 04:11 AM
Re: Emily to Landfall Near Cozumel

Recon report about 15 minutes ago reported 141kt at flight level. Interestingly, the report of the 141kt wind they have in the actual report itself is in the SW quadrant, but they list it as being in the NE quadrant in the remarks. Perhaps it's in both...that'd be quite a change, though, considering the south side of the storm has been pretty weak throughout.

Don't know what the NHC will do with intensity from here. The eyewall cycle seems to have short-circuited itself, or at least trying to hold off from completing, so we still have strong flight level winds with a steadily rising pressure. You usually don't see 955mb correspond to ~140mph surface winds or ~160mph flight level winds...something has to give. The winds will at landfall, as will the pressure; but, will it happen beforehand as well? That's the big question of the night.



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