a couple days ago i was saying that if franklin formed, it would probably recurve... this based on globals that always recurve stuff early, but also with knowledge of that shortwave going by early saturday.
after reassessing the future position of the ridge and seeing how much that shortwave seems to have to it.. i'm going to put stock in the bastardi/accuwx idea that it misses the connection and meanders back to the coast next week. joe b put it well this morning; to paraphrase: if i'm wrong it goes out to sea, if i'm right it comes back.
pretty cut and dry that those are the two options.
the wave with the ridging above in the nw caribbean is probably going to start developing in the gulf tomorrow. i don't think it'll get much going before the yucatan.. but it'll probably spin up in the gulf and head for the same general area emily hit. the trajectory will be more to the north, so even if it goes into mexico a bunch of rain is coming up into texas. even if this thing fails to develop it's a rain event for lone star country.
wave near 30w still very prominent and will be moving into an upstream building ridge as an upper trough digs and retrogrades ahead of it. wave is significant in that not only does it have an energetic profile and support environment ahead, but it's the leading edge of a moisture plume off africa, pushing the dry saharan air out ahead of it. subsequent waves have a much friendlier environment thanks to this trick.
HF 1546z22july