That's the key that those three models are betting on. If Franklin gets east of Jax(30 N) he gets swept out to sea. But they think he never makes it that far and gets forced back to the west.

He is looking a bit better, more like a developing TS. I suspect the pressure will start falling a little, but he's taking his time doing everything today, moving being one of them. Looking at the vis sat you would think he's farther to the NE and moving faster than he is, but the Melbourne rader looks like a slow NNW. Will he be north of the Cape by Sat morning?? If not, he could miss the bus, and hang around with no idea where to go.