franklin is either going to get the connection and recurve or miss it and loop back. this won't be decided until late in the weekend (if it's jetting ene at that point all clear, if it's stalled again or drifting south look out).
there appears to be a broad surface low forming on the east coast of the yucatan. it should propagate nw over the peninsula and be in the sw gulf tomorrow. i'm thinking the globals pushing it into mexico are garbage because none really initialize much of a system and treat it like an open wave.. once it develops a defined surface low and plenty of convection the mean deep-layer flow is from the se.. should push it nw towards texas. early next week as the upper ridge shifts east, the center of height falls should be over the western gulf states and bend the track of whatever is there northward... if the feature on the e coast of the yucatan is going to be 'it', i'd say that mass ends up btw corpus christi and houston... centered on victoria... around monday night.
heat content in the western gulf is still very high in spite of emily having gone through earlier this week. theres a shot that a strengthening hurricane will hit texas early next week.
wave east of the islands is half moist/half saharan dust.. should generate more convection as it nears 40w and i'm thinking it will develop around 50w. there may be a tropical system approaching the leewards around tue-wed.
HF 1753z22july