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Don'tcha hate it when the pages get too wide? Got 3 e-mails/PM's or so on Joe Bastardi's updated landfall intensity forecast for July. I thought his 2004 forecast was insane, but this one outdoes what we've already seen. I think Phil callled 2004 the Season from Hell or something like that. Well 2005, if this verifies, will set a new standard for heat. What I got from the different e-mails is that he's looking for a major hurricane to hit southern Florida; a hurricane for the N.E. US Coast, a hurricane for Canada (possibly in conjunction with the NE Coast storm), another hurricane for Texas, a major for the Carolinas, and a substantial threat to the north central Gulf Coast east of the LA zone. I don't have accupro, so I can't verify this in its entirety, but this is what I could piece together between the information I got. I also know that he expects continued close-in development so we will probably have a few more tropical storm hits among the hurricanes he's calling for. Hey, if this stuff verifies, and his analogs are big for 1995, 1954 and 1933, that would be a major victory for seasonal landfall predictions. His earlier forecast called for the most effects on the North Central Gulf, and between Arlene, Cindy and Dennis, that was a good call. We'll see. Steve |