Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 07:51 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Don'tcha hate it when the pages get too wide?

Got 3 e-mails/PM's or so on Joe Bastardi's
updated landfall intensity forecast for July. I
thought his 2004 forecast was insane, but this
one outdoes what we've already seen. I
think Phil callled 2004 the Season from Hell
or something like that. Well 2005, if this verifies,
will set a new standard for heat.

What I got from the different e-mails is that
he's looking for a major hurricane to hit
southern Florida; a hurricane for the N.E.
US Coast, a hurricane for Canada (possibly
in conjunction with the NE Coast storm),
another hurricane for Texas, a major for the
Carolinas, and a substantial threat to the
north central Gulf Coast east of the LA zone.

I don't have accupro, so I can't verify this in its
entirety, but this is what I could piece together
between the information I got. I also know that
he expects continued close-in development so
we will probably have a few more tropical
storm hits among the hurricanes he's calling for.

Hey, if this stuff verifies, and his analogs are
big for 1995, 1954 and 1933, that would be a
major victory for seasonal landfall predictions.
His earlier forecast called for the most effects
on the North Central Gulf, and between
Arlene, Cindy and Dennis, that was a good call.

We'll see.

Steve