Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Jul 23 2005 05:22 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Good catch on that weak upper-level feature. However, it could also be a detriment to Franklin's well-being; it could serve as a means of evacuating the outflow from the developing disturbance in the Bay of Campeche, serving to shear the storm even further by providing a focusing mechanism for such an event. It's pretty weak, though, so I can't see it spinning up and deflecting the shear, nor can I see it helping to further shear the storm all that much. We'll see come tomorrow what happens.

As for right now, though, Franklin's looking a little better on IR imagery, though the entire SW side is still exposed. The diurnal convective maximum should help to temporarily take care of that, maybe allow the storm to peek up to 55-60mph in intensity, but we'll likely see more of the same as today tomorrow unless the storm starts to accelerate to the NE.

QuikSCAT passes tonight show some broad turning over the Yucutan and out in the central Atlantic...unfortunately, the former is over land and had its east side gapped, while the latter was largely gapped as well. Convection has become more concentrated with the latter; it may just be a matter of time (re: a day or so) before we see an invest on that one. The weak area of low pressure with the Caribbean disturbance is convection-less at this time, but a large area of convection exists just along the western shore of the Yucutan/Belize. If the center reforms out there, development may take longer to get going; if not, then it may be more along the lines of what I posted earlier (with new convective development in the Bay of Campeche Saturday).



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