franklin looks like it's just about stopped moving again. the upper shortwave is getting close... it's gonna push it east some.. how far i'm not sure. i'm still betting on it breaking loose and turning back as the shortwave passes by and ridging builds over it early next week. surprised that it's managed to intensify some tonight in spite of the shear and small anticyclone trying to maintain near the storm.
91L entering the gulf tomorrow... whatever low was trying to develop with it friday near the belize/yucatan coast is probably going to reconsolidate along the west yucatan coast between campeche and merida. early track may be wnw, but i expect it to bend right towards the texas coast as the ridging to the north migrates eastward. that's my best bet... if that doesn't verify it'll get pushed more to the west. recon will clarify how quickly the system is going to develop tomorrow.
big 'ol wave nearing 40w has all its convection trailing it.. moving into and through a good upper environment. huge gyre with the wave, lots of subsidence though... further west it gets the better the chances convection will start to get through the dry layer. wave behind it around 20w is running through a much moister environment. mediocre model support for either, but worth watching... that lead wave especially if it starts blowing convection in that large gyre.
the east atlantic is open for business.. through late september.
HF 0728z23july