Yes I agree with you pretty much Margie. Dice and lottery balls do not remember what they did in the past, nor do they care. There is far more involved with tropics than statistics, and fewer constants, if any. Trying to isolate the constants over time to see how the variables affect them is the challenge. However, these parameters involving the tropics are quite random. El Nino can be an indicator of a less active Atlantic basin season, but not an absolute, particularly when figuring on how it affects our lives. Look at Andrew. El Nino - inactive season - devastating. On the other hand a season like 2005 - highly active - unpredictable - destructive. We like to categorize these things in nice buckets...1954, 1933, 1995, etc., based on similarity. Yes high SSTs, neutral ENSO, high salinity?...thermocline, but different set of circumstances. It is not 1954, it is 2005, and we're in a cycle of increased hurrricane activity. If JB can find the magic teleconnection to where these cyclones will landfall here in the states, God bless him. But really the only real constant we live with IS change. Random thoguhts - now back to painting - Cheers!!