| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 11:53 AM |
|
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
|
Reading Stewart's 11:00 am discussion, I am not ready to raise an all clear flag for Florida.
Quote:
JUST ONE PROBLEM...ALL OF
THE MODELS...TO SOME DEGREE...MOVE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY
BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS
SIMILAR TO THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS. GIVEN THAT FRANKLIN IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
FROM 06Z...AND THAT ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY BY 72 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...OR SOUTH...OF AND A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
This may be more indicative of Franklin possibly tearing apart in the future. However, it also seems to indicate to me that the door is not shut on other options. I think the chances of a loop around are still small; but as long as that chance exists, I will be wary.