I found this part of the discussion interesting....in no way am I trying to wishcast, but I'm trying to understand what physics could force the system to go south and southwest. Could the awaited trough deflect Franklin rather than pick him up?

Most of the model guidance
...Excluding the much faster GFS and GFDL models...now slows down
Franklin through 72 hours and either dissipated the cyclone or
waits for another shortwave trough to pick up the cyclone and
accelerate it quickly to the northeast. Just one problem...all of
the models...to some degree...move the mid-level circulation slowly
back to the south and southwest after 72 hours. This scenario is
similar to the medium and deep BAM models. Given that Franklin is
currently south of and slower than all of the NHC model guidance
from 06z...and that all of the models forecast the mid-level flow
to become northwest to northerly by 72 hours...the official track
has been shifted to the right...or south...of and a little slower
than the previous forecast. This track is consistent with the GUNS
model consensus.