franklin is getting sheared more severely today...still moving east (or northeast). if it decouples the northern end will remain franklin... as far east as it's gone it isn't coming back. the mid-layer vorticity hasn't 'come loose' but should over the next couple of days.. maybe the low level center will jerk around and do a couple of stunts near bermuda as it tries to come with it. i've had franklin wrong thus far; maybe i'll get something related but strange right here...
area further west has my interest. a weak area of low pressure and mid-layer vorticity is on the trailing flank of franklin east of florida.. some convergence in the area as well as the settling mid-layer trough near the east coast is helping force it. with the vortmax present and whatever energy peels back from franklin... a new center may develop near the northern bahamas over the next couple of days. that may be how this thing finally evolves... it wouldn't be franklin in any case if this takes place.
gert jumped north the other night.. maybe it'll come in closer to texas than it was progged to last night, but unless the center tightens rapidly and gets swept nnw in the deep layer flow, it's going to nudge inland before it can make a strengthening run up the coast towards texas. nhc track looks good, maybe a little south.. maybe slightly too weak. the mid-level moisture from gert will be moving up into texas over the next few.
strong wave near 50w is still choking in dry saharan air.. with the low near 12n still diffuse and without convection. still a chance it blows some as it nears the islands... the large area of turning will slowly continue to spin down otherwise.
follow on waves are low amplitude and will only perk up in response to ridging aloft.. of which there's a little closer to the caribbean.
HF 1539z24july