Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Jul 24 2005 03:21 PM
Re: franklin going away, SAT brought a question

Joe,

This is all I could find:

British scientists have created a computer model that
significantly boosts the accuracy of hurricane predictions in
the United States. The work by a team from University College
London is expected to enable government, public, emergency
planning bodies and insurers with U.S. interests to receive
forecasts each August of the likelihood of hurricane damage
during the hurricane season that runs from August to October.
The model uses anomalies in July wind patterns from six regions
over North America and the East Pacific and North Atlantic
oceans to predict the wind energy of U.S.-striking hurricanes
for the following hurricane season. The wind anomalies are
indicative of atmospheric circulation patterns that either
favor or hinder evolving hurricanes from reaching US shores.
The large year-on-year variability in the number of hurricanes
making U.S. landfall means skilful seasonal forecasts of
activity would benefit both individuals and a range of decision-
makers. The research is summarized in Thursday's edition of the
journal Nature.


The Press Release

Here's another article on an NC State project that claims to be able to better predict numbers of storms and landfall risks.

http://www.physorg.com/news4351.html

Here's a link to tsr's ACE Index forecast from 7/7. I didn't see any mention of what they are going to release in August.

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/

Steve