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Joe, This is all I could find: British scientists have created a computer model that significantly boosts the accuracy of hurricane predictions in the United States. The work by a team from University College London is expected to enable government, public, emergency planning bodies and insurers with U.S. interests to receive forecasts each August of the likelihood of hurricane damage during the hurricane season that runs from August to October. The model uses anomalies in July wind patterns from six regions over North America and the East Pacific and North Atlantic oceans to predict the wind energy of U.S.-striking hurricanes for the following hurricane season. The wind anomalies are indicative of atmospheric circulation patterns that either favor or hinder evolving hurricanes from reaching US shores. The large year-on-year variability in the number of hurricanes making U.S. landfall means skilful seasonal forecasts of activity would benefit both individuals and a range of decision- makers. The research is summarized in Thursday's edition of the journal Nature. The Press Release Here's another article on an NC State project that claims to be able to better predict numbers of storms and landfall risks. http://www.physorg.com/news4351.html Here's a link to tsr's ACE Index forecast from 7/7. I didn't see any mention of what they are going to release in August. http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/ Steve |