Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Jul 25 2005 12:46 AM
Franklin's Future, and Long Range Insight

IR and visible imagery indicate that the storm is decoupled, and is being heavily sheared. Sheared storms can and have been very tenacious in the past so this may last long. It's the future that concern's me...the GFS has a completely different track from the CMC and NOGAPS, and the answer lies in where the polar vortex ends up. The GFS places the vortex over the pole, which pulls Franklin away from the U.S and therefore it doesn't block the briding of the azores and U.S ridge. The CMC and to a lesser extent NOGAPS leave the storm, and see some transistion to extratropical which allows it to strengthen. This would prevent the bridging, and prevents or more likely hinders future development of the Cape verde wave. All I'm saying is that the future path of Franklin will determine the next storms path. The AO is forecasted to go moderately negative over the next 10 days, conducive to what the GFS is thinking.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

So based on what I think the CV wave will be a more GOM threat...



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