danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Jul 25 2005 03:11 AM
Re:Frankliin

First question. Franklin is like a "Rope Tornado" right now.
Surface vortice is displaced from the Upper Vortice. I'm not a Met. Part of my theory on this has to do with the 'slope' of the trough moving through the area. I'm thinking that the trough is like a bulldozer blade. But, the blade doesn't go all the way to the surface. So, it's displaced the top of the storm and left the bottom in place.

NHC normally gives the surface location. Since that's normally the part we worry about the most. In this case I'm not sure.
But I'm going with the surface vortice location.

Best for Last.
NHC averages the storm movement of All storms. I believe it's over the last three position locations.
Remember Charley last year. RECON had him turning 5 hours before the Advisories reflected that He Was turning.
All you had to do was plot the Vortex reports.
Charley started his turn around 7 AM. In other words. He went No further West at that time.
The Advisories didn't reflect the turn until around Noon or 1 PM.
Sometime your eyes play tricks on you. Long hours watching loops can do that too!
I prefer a 4 to 6 hour loop. Without enhancement. For movement. That's just my preference, though.



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