franklin finally quit moving northeast this afternoon. drifting south now, slowly weakening under northerly shear and from subsidence entrainment. the convection is still edging SE, so it may drag the llc that way for a while; as the ridge moves eastward to the north the flow should turn NE and start to push franklin into some version of that loop bamm has been sending it on for days. the severe version takes it back west into striking position of the SE coast; the consensus would keep it pretty close to where it is for the next couple of days. there' s a chance it dissipates in the next couple of days.. but not too great it'll get completely thrashed, and shear conditions should improve slowly late tomorrow/tuesday. it's interesting and quite a forecast problem, but more than likely not going to be much of a threat.
gert is inland, pretty much a rehash of bret back in late june. area to the north of landfall was recently doused by emily... this one isn't moving incredibly slow so flooding problems shouldn't be more than a nuisance.
future interests:
the weak trough across s. florida is still a focal point for scattered/moderate convection at times, but not developing right now. it'll take a sustained burst of convection to get something going at this point.. probably going to be a no-show. this area may linger for a couple days.
east of emily: a weak disturbance has been hanging on the tail of an old frontal boundary under northerly shear, intermittently firing convection. again, needs a sustained burst to do more than flounder.
near 14/54: broad cyclonic turning associated with the tropical wave/moisture plume that came off africa last week. atmosphere slowly becoming more moist.. a flowering of convection would make it interesting.
wave near 30w: moving along, good itcz flare at the lead, cyclonic turning tailing, moving w behind it at a slightly higher latitude. models track as a wave, but the environment ahead is moderately ok.
over africa: long train of waves shown in that graphic steve posted earlier. probably a storm or two in there. maybe they'll develop early and recurve early.. considering that all 7 storms this season have affected land, it'd be nice to see a genuine fish spinner. gfs develops the one emerging early this week and recurves it far out to sea.. typical. not completely infeasible since the atlantic ridge has a good, broad weakness in the western atlantic right now, that should be reinforced for the next few days. its mean position should back over the SE as per global models.. also showing a weakness near 45w that gfs is probably overdoing.
anywho... harvey should be around before too much longer, way things are looking.
HF 0619z25july