franklin is hung in a no-mans land west of bermuda. doing another cycloidal jig-bob like last night; strangely the storm's pressure has fallen to it's lowest point this morning even though the storm is severely sheared. northerly shear doesn't hurt tropical cyclones the way southwesterly shear does... when they're stuck. hard to say which set of models is right.. some are still holding it put for 24 hrs or so and then sliding some of the ridging from that huge upper high over the eastern u.s. overhead and backing it west... others taking it north or northeast. most aren't hardly moving franklin for the next 24, so it'll probably stay within 100 miles of 31/70 for the time being. since the storm will likely linger for the next few days, it's likely that we'll have another cyclone active.
the wave near 55w right now isn't very perky and there's no model support for it to deepen... the gyre has almost completely spun down now. twd has a weak low with it again, but probably no dice. i thought this would develop a few days back... didn't work. back near 32w a substantial wave with a low on its axis is plugging west.. drawing in subsidence like the one before it, but not nearly as much. a number of models are developing this one... it has a good chance to make harvey. of the globals have a weakness in the east atlantic and have tried turning it up.. probably rubbish. there should be some decent ridging across the basin for this one... weakness lingering near the atlantic seaboard for the next few days before backing inland. we'll see. another wave is just coming off.. looks rambunctions, too. some of the globals have a cutoff low in the east atlantic subtropics late this week/weekend... that'll have to be watched also if it verifies (fish spinner fodder).
with that wave chain over africa the first two weeks of august look to have a couple more systems in the offing.
HF 1937z25july